The unexpectedly hot Australian Grand Prix is likely to make the test that follows in Malaysia quite interesting. The teams are now headed to one of the hottest weekends of the year, where long straights will require the engines to work hard, putting real stress on the cooling systems.
This means that the nine cars that completed the race in Australia have to consider the longevity of their gearboxes and engines, which may need more looking after on their second hot race, perhaps offering a significant race day advantage to rivals.
Alongside straights that challenge the aerodynamic efficiency of the cars, tight corner sequences will ask for mechanical grip and the medium speed corners require balance: this is circuit is highly technical and rewards a fundamentally sound package, including the driver (until the heat and humidity gets to them), as the wide track permits some leeway for them to work their way around minor weaknesses.
As if the track was not challenge enough, there is a high chance of heavy rain at any point throughout the weekend, so teams will have to consider the consequences of being caught in the wet with a dry setup, or vice versa - how each approaches the compromise will be interesting, especially as there is a very real chance of different weather for qualifying and the race.
 Lewis Hamilton battles the Ferraris of Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen © LAT |
Flashback
In 2007, a rain threatened, drizzle impacted but surprisingly drama-less qualifying session saw Massa put together a stunning lap that entirely justified pole position, whilst Alonso edged out Raikkonen for the other spot on the front row. Hamilton was a comfortable fourth, ahead of BMW's Heidfeld. Rosberg split the BMW's, underlying his re-emergence as a talent, and the Toyota's both made it in to the final session.
Poor starts from the Ferrari duo saw the McLarens move up to first and second through the opening corner, incidentally confirming Hamilton's capacity to make demon race starts. Alonso never looked back, going on to record a comfortable win, but the race behind him was far harder...
Lap 2 saw Massa and Hamilton fighting determinedly for second place, a fight that would lead to the Brazilian locking up on turn four of lap 6, costing two positions and ultimately any shot at the podium. Raikkonen then pressured the McLaren for a spell before traffic and diminished pace in the middle stint saw him fall off, but essentially the podium was now set up.
Further back, Kubica had punted Heidfeld in Turn 2, damaging his wing and making himself vulnerable to Rosberg's Williams; the Renault duo started well, and the Toyotas struggled off the line - Ralf Schumacher suffering from contact with a Super Aguri of Sato, who then proceeded to tangle with both the Toro Rosso pair, causing Liuzzi to stop for a new wing. Sutil dropped his Spyker, collecting Button's Honda on his way to the kitty litter. And Albers cooked the other Spyker when it caught fire after being stuck in first gear.
The action was relatively scant otherwise - Rosberg stopped with an hydraulic failure, Fisichella surprised himself with a points finish and Trulli held on to finish seventh. Kovalainen rounded out the points.
Pos Driver Team Time
1. Alonso McLaren-Mercedes (B) 1h32:14.930
2. Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes (B) + 17.557
3. Raikkonen Ferrari (B) + 18.339
4. Heidfeld BMW Sauber (B) + 33.777
5. Massa Ferrari (B) + 36.705
6. Fisichella Renault (B) + 1:05.638
7. Trulli Toyota (B) + 1:10.132
8. Kovalainen Renault (B) + 1:12.015
Fastest race lap: Hamilton, 1:36.701
Qualifying best: Alonso, Q2, 1:34.057
Weather
With temperatures expected to be in the mid eighties (a shade cooler than last year), as in Melbourne the track could again exceed 100 degrees this weekend. Winds should largely be consistent in both direction and strength, but rarely more than a light breeze.
So the real question driver for the weekend is the potential for thunderstorms, as there is approximately a sixty percent chance that scattered thunderstorms will impact any session, including qualifying or the race.
Strategy
Whilst the teams faced Australia anticipating the regular appearance of the Safety Car, this weekend will require somewhat different flexibility over the potential for rain: should it rain during the race, then qualifying is going to prove largely irrelevant compared with making the right call on when to change tyres, and being fuelled appropriately to hit those windows.
That said, strategy starts with handling perfect conditions, before compromises are added for circumstances; ordinarily this should prove to be a fairly straightforward two stop race. Qualifying well is helpful, as overtaking is not trivial, but this is a place where it is certainly possible, so it is arguably more important to be starting the race on a good fuel load.
This offers a respectable advantage over shorter stopping rivals, provided the drivers look after their tyres. In principle, this is less of a problem with a single tyre provider than during a tyre war, as they should prove far from marginal, but now we are racing without traction control, smooth drivers are going to be better rewarded.
When going in to qualifying, the teams will have already decided if they are going to set up for rain, dry, or a compromise, as they will not be able to adjust their cars until the race starts. When anticipating rain, accurately predicting when it will arrive is more art than science: those that scrape in to the third qualifying session (so fixing their fuel loads) will be at some disadvantage to similarly performing Q2 rivals, who will have a far more accurate picture as they decide their own strategies just before the race starts.
Should there be a gamble from any midfield player, it will be on a dry race and three stops: should they prove right, then they will not only be out of sequence for pit-stops, but have enough performance advantage to pass cars that are compromised for wet weather...
Conclusions
With a comfortable win under his belt, Hamilton takes on the mantle of favourite, but there is no doubting that Ferrari really have not been able to show their potential so far: take out the comedy of errors, and it ought to remain a tight battle between the front two outfits. Both Raikkonen and Massa illustrated great pace, but they seem to be spending more time on the edge than last year, which is likely to result in more errors.
BMW-Sauber are still leading the charge to the front, though Williams and Red Bull have quite clearly raised their games; all three teams will be looking to score good points, which could prove pivotal from these early races as the reliability of the front runners can only improve, making points harder to come by.
A lap of Sepang with Alex Wurz
"It's usually very hot and humid in Malaysia, so the race is a big challenge for the brakes, the engine and also the drivers. The circuit is a great challenge too, so it's a pretty full-on weekend for the teams.
"To take you around the track: you arrive at the first corner in seventh gear, at about 310km/h (192mph). There is a lot of grip from the asphalt, so you can brake really late before turning-in in third gear. The rear gets a bit light at this point. You then have the left-hander at Turn 2, which is the slowest corner on the circuit. It's first or second gear, depending on your gearing, and it has a camber change in the middle, so it's quite difficult to find the right differential set-up for it.
"Next comes a long right-hander, which is easy-flat even in the wet, and then you're braking for the right-hander at Turn 4. The braking area is really bumpy, which makes it a bit tricky, and then comes a really nice part of the circuit.
"You enter Turns 5 and 6 in fifth gear, at 230km/h (143mph), and the entry to turn 5 is almost flat so you really have to squeeze the throttle and make sure you have a very late apex. There's an immediate change of direction and at this point we pull about 4.5g. You might touch the brakes to stabilise the car into Turn 6, which is incredibly bumpy and the rear gets very light. Don't forget that we are still at 220-230km/h (137-143mph), with not much run-off, and I really enjoy it!
"Then comes a double right-hander, which is easy to get wrong if you overdrive and it leads to a hairpin. It's first or second gear and it's very important to have a good exit because that gives you pure lap time.
"Then we go to another flowing section, which leads to the penultimate corner. It's very difficult here because you enter it very fast and the rear gets very light. You have to brake down to second gear while turning and the car is oversteering the whole time. It's very easy to overdo it. The last corner is another hairpin and we again brake very late, from 300km/h (186mph), down to second gear."
Team by Team
Ferrari
The Australian Grand Prix was not good for Ferrari, who struggled with reliability issues through the weekend, and saw both cars spin when attempting to pass Kovalainen, and retire with engine related problems. The team were clearly not firing on all cylinders this weekend, and without a doubt come away knowing they dropped the ball.
The reliability issues are particularly troubling, so the team are setting about identifying and resolving the causes in a hurry - if they don't get this nailed, then they will lose ground to McLaren, as developments for improving performance will inevitably be compromised.
With Malaysia following on only a week later, big question marks remain over whether the team will make the finish of the race; on the positive side, both drivers will have new engines, which should help then take the fight back to McLaren, provided they remain in one piece.
On a different note, Jean Todd officially stepped down as CEO this week after 15 years with the firm; he remains on the board and the team's official for liaising with the FIA, but he continues to distance himself from the outfit.
1. Kimi Raikkonen: after a fuel pump failure wrecked qualifying, Raikkonen drove a great race, give or take the spin passing Kovalainen, and his engine letting go a couple of laps from the finish. Based on the best form shown over the weekend, he will be something to see in Malaysia, and expecting at least a podium finish if he can avoid mistakes!
2. Felipe Massa: having started the race with great optimism, Massa made a mistake attempting to pass Kovalainen, sending him down the order; attempting to move forwards, Coulthard closed the door late on a pass, resulting in more contact - then the engine gave up. The car illustrated enough pace to expect a podium finish, so this was disappointing... but there is every reason to believe Massa will bounce back in Malaysia and return to fighting at the front.
Objectives: Win the race.
 Robert Kubica © LAT |
BMW Sauber
There is no denying that folks started paying real attention when BMW put a car on the front row in Australia: it turns out they were running a little less fuel than Ferrari or McLaren, but it put them on notice. A strong race to second place confirmed that they are going to be ready to pick up the pieces at any opportunity they get.
The Malaysian Grand Prix is something of a home event for the team, who have been sponsored by Petronas for years; they approach it with that attitude, and generally seem to raise their game. The team have to be expecting to get both cars well in to the points, as they are clearly still leading the midfield, even if the gap has closed.
By a similar token, they have closed the gap to Ferrari and McLaren, so the opportunity to score podium finishes this year ought to be higher, as it will be easier to capitalise when the front duo drop the ball.
3. Nick Heidfeld: another solid, reliable performance from the German netted second place in Australia, a great way to start the season. It is likely to be the first of another series of strong races, and it would not be a surprise to see him fight for a podium spot again this weekend if either of the leading teams falter.
4. Robert Kubica: very nearly on pole, Kubica illustrated his pace unequivocally in Australia, even if his race was marred by a strategy change that did not work out, and ended by a collision behind the safety car. It appears that Kubica has finally worked out how to get the best from his tyres, so there is every chance of another qualifying shot this weekend.
Objectives: At least one car on the podium.
Renault
The return of their double World Champion was not enough to help Renault get in to the top ten in Australia qualifying, but his race day performance certainly helped them to fourth place. Clearly happy to be back, Alonso is already encouraging and cajoling his team in order to drive them onwards.
Of course, with only one week since the last race, nothing has changed, so he will be racing essentially the same equipment again, which means that again, getting in to Q3 in qualifying will be challenging. Renault seem to have the capacity to fight for a point in Sepang, but it will be hard come by unless the weather creates chaos, teams take themselves out of the game again, or Alonso pulls something special out of the bag.
5. Fernando Alonso: missing out on Q3 in Australia frustrated Alonso, but his pace on race day was pretty useful - enough to finish fourth after coming out on top of a protracted battle with Kovalainen. There is absolutely no doubt that the Renault is really not as fast as McLaren, but he must have been very satisfied to finish ahead, whatever the circumstances. The next weekend could offer a chance at more points, it ought to be a struggle, but Alonso has always done surprisingly well there.
6. Nelson Piquet Jr: a terrible qualifying session can have done nothing to help the confidence of Piquet, who had an equally disastrous race, effectively ending at the first corner with a collision. Needless to say, he would be hard pushed to have a worse weekend in Sepang, but rumours of his demise will surely start to spread if he doesn't have a decent qualifying session or race.
Objectives: At least one car challenging for points.
 Nico Rosberg © LAT |
Williams
Starting the season with a podium finish has to be considerably more than Williams expected, so the weekend in Melbourne is surely a success from that alone. Adding a points finish for Nakajima puts icing on the cake - this will be a tough act to follow.
Making it tougher, the Japanese driver will be starting the next race with a ten-place penalty after some careless driving behind the safety car; getting him to the points against that penalty is going to be challenging, even if this race also suffers from high attrition.
The team remain suspicious of the reliability they can count on from their cars, which were troublesome in testing: accordingly, as neither driver is expected to change engine or gearbox, they are going to have to look after them carefully through the weekend and this might compromise race pace. That should not interfere with qualifying, though, where they are rather hoping to see both cars fighting well in to the top ten.
7. Nico Rosberg: having posted his first podium in Australia, Rosberg is heading to a circuit that he particularly enjoys at Sepang, and should be expected to make a solid showing. Should more chaos descend, Rosberg's relative inexperience should be tempered by the experience on the wall: more points should be in the offing.
8. Kazuki Nakajima: Australia proved to be an interesting weekend for Nakajima, who only just made it in to Q2, but in making it to the end of the race (after twice stopping for new car parts after contact with others), he picked up sixth place and valuable points. He also picked up a ten place penalty to apply to his Malaysia qualifying for colliding with Kubica behind the safety car... so a second points finish will be difficult this weekend.
Objectives: Rosberg in the points - and a contact free race for Nakajima.
Red Bull Racing
Having both cars finish the Australian Grand Prix with contact damage sums up the weekend all too well. The car has shown sufficient pace to hope for a decent finish - particularly given the attrition rate. The threatened reliability bug-bear barely showed its head, yet neither car went the distance and points went begging... so a disappointing outing.
While the midfield continues to see so many closely matched teams, Red Bull Racing retain good opportunities to score points; but, to the point, the smallest improvement is worth several places in performance terms, so they really must capitalise now, in case they develop through the season at a different rate and lose the opportunity. Accordingly, getting the cars to the finish in Sepang must be a priority!
9. David Coulthard: a top ten qualifying session in Australia put Coulthard in a decent position to race, which he did with some effect until he turned in to Massa and ended up in the kitty litter. Malaysia was not kind to Coulthard last year, but this platform ought to offer him a chance at a points finish.
10. Mark Webber: equipment failure is never a good thing, and in front of your home crowd, when the car is capable of a top ten qualifying spot, it is frustrating. Compounding it with a first corner incident in the race doubly so. Must do better in Sepang - and surely will!
Objectives: Score points.
 Jarno Trulli © LAT |
Toyota
Poor reliability hurt Toyota in Australia, but there was no doubt that the car is showing enough pace to compete in the midfield. As they improve the reliability and develop the car, they should become more competitive, but until then, they will face an uphill struggle coming away with points on most weekends.
The Malaysian weekend could prove to be an exception: historically, the team have been pretty handy at this circuit, with Trulli in particular showing an affinity. Should they be able to unlock the potential of the car, then points are certainly a reasonable goal. With no time to work on improving reliability, however, there is a significant chance of problems interfering with grid position or the race, so this has to be their chief concern.
11. Jarno Trulli: qualifying specialist or not, sixth was a good result on Saturday in Australia, following up with a points finish even better; Trulli made the most of others misfortune, as the pace of the car would probably not have sufficed in a race with less attrition. He has demonstrated particular speed in Malaysian qualifying, so another strong performance can be expected - should he do it with a heavy fuel load, then like last year, more points could be on the cards...
12. Timo Glock: getting in to Q3 was a nice start for Glock, but a gearbox substitution in practice did him no favours, costing five places. Another five for impeding Webber put him to the back, then a huge accident during the race compounded his miserable weekend. On the positive side, as the balance improves on the car, he is clearly capable of extracting a decent turn of speed.
Objectives: Score points.
Scuderia Toro Rosso
It is interesting times at Toro Rosso, as the outfit has been put up for sale - with customer cars being effectively banned from the end of next year, it is going to become prohibitively expensive for parent company Red Bull to run two teams, so Toro Rosso will be changing owners by 2010. There is clearly going to be some impact to the motivation of the team while their future is uncertain.
The opening race in Australia was quite interesting: getting a car to Q3 was a fillip, even if technical problems prevented them from running the session - then some inspired calls and a solid drive had them looking at fourth place on merit, until more mechanical problems denied them that finish.
There is no doubt that the car was quick enough in Australia to justify delaying the introduction of the new chassis, but the premise of that delay was improved reliability, which makes it doubly disappointing that they did not capitalize on such a solid opportunity.
14. Sebastian Bourdais: tough practice and qualifying saw Bourdais start at the back of the grid, but an almost perfect race day brought him to fourth place, before a mechanical problem ended his race two laps early. Clearly demonstrating strength as a racer, it will be fascinating to see what he can do with the car when he gets a good qualifying session in.
15. Sebastian Vettel: getting the car in to Q3 was a solid reward for the faith the team has shown in the youngster, though stalling on the grid at the start dropped him down the order, ultimately getting him mixed up in a first corner incident. Vettel has to be looking for a repeat in qualifying this weekend - and improved reliability.
Objectives: Score points.
 Ross Brawn and Jenson Button © LAT |
Honda
Putting the disaster of 2007 behind them, Honda came away from Melbourne encouraged by the pace of the car and their potential to mix it up in the midfield - indeed, they are now looking to fight for points regularly as the season unwinds.
For the coming weekend, it is easy to envisage the team playing to their drivers' strengths; Button being particularly noted for his wet-weather driving, it would not be any surprise to see hedged approaches, with the Briton running a strategy and set-up optimised for wetter weather, while Barrichello follows a dryer approach. With neither driver having anything to prove, or a chance at the drivers' championship, a team approach to scoring points makes sense.
On a different note, the pit-crew will likely be paying more attention this weekend. Having not only sent Barrichello out too early, causing mayhem to those still working on the car, someone should have mentioned the red light at the end of the pits to the Brazilian. They really must maintain a top drawer game if they are to return to the sharp end of the grid!
16. Jenson Button: having missed out on Q3 before being caught up in an accident on the first corner of the race, it is clear that Button's weekend was far from ideal. On the positive side, the car performs so much better than it did last year, that even this miserable outing is a relatively positive experience: roll on Malaysia, with the potential to shine in the rain!
17. Rubens Barrichello: being disqualified from sixth after the Australian Grand Prix for running a red light leaving the pits, Barrichello did not, after all, collect three points for the team. On the positive side, despite imperfect luck - he had the potential to finish on the podium, but for the timing of a safety car period - the car was clearly performing far better than pundits expected, so the Brazilian is heading to Malaysia in a positive frame of mind.
Objectives: Fight in the midfield - for points!
Super Aguri
Having barely made the opening race, and arriving with almost no testing miles under their belt, it is little surprise that Super Aguri had a fairly miserable weekend. On the positive side, every lap turned adds considerably to their very limited store of knowledge regarding the car, which ought to help.
There is little prospect of change in Sepang - quite simply, the team have insufficient spare parts to risk running right to the ragged edge, insufficient test distance to get straight to the optimum set-up of the car, let alone comfort in the reliability level, and they have had no time to change anything in the last week.
On the positive side, things can only get better. The future of the team has been secured, they have almost no expectations set against them, and their remaining team is committed to moving forwards. Each session will let them claw back in to the season - so even if Sepang works out as little more than a test session, it will be an invaluable opportunity to improve the car.
18. Takuma Sato: having avoided the back row in qualifying, proceeded to have a difficult race before retiring on lap 33. It was actually an encouraging performance, implying that with more reliability he might do more than prop up the grid.
19. Anthony Davidson: underprepared for the season, Davidson struggled to get the best from the car in Australia, and was punted out on the opening lap of the race. It has to be better this weekend - at least, he is almost certain to get more laps in and some time in the cockpit to acclimatise to the car!
Objectives: Qualify off the back row...
 Giancarlo Fisichella © XPB/LAT |
Force India
Melbourne was a bit disappointing for Force India, really. They had shown some promising pace in the test sessions, but struggled with qualifying and failed to see either car get to a pitstop on race day. Races with this much attrition are few and far between in the modern sport, so it was doubly tough to see a genuine points opportunity go begging.
Heading to Malaysia, things could be interesting. The team have less money to spend on efficient aerodynamics than their rivals, so deficiencies in that arena will be more obvious. On the other hand, provided they can get the car well balanced and set up for wet weather, a couple of decent bouts of rain could again see the field decimated and a chance of sneaking in to the points.
20. Adrian Sutil: a tough qualifying saw Sutil wreck his car and start from the pitlane in Australia; the race was little better, as a hydraulic failure ended the day after nine laps. Consistency remains a problem for Sutil, who appears to be very quick when he can avoid coming off the road and damaging the car.
21. Giancarlo Fisichella: nearly through to Q2 in Australia, Fisichella's race was ended in the first corner... avoiding the same fate in Malaysia could be tricky, as the long run down to the first corner often sees misjudged braking zones. On the positive side, following flashes of real midfield pace in the practice sessions, it could be an interesting weekend.
Objectives: Fight in the midfield.
McLaren Mercedes
It was not quite a perfect outing for McLaren in Melbourne; they qualified on pole, took fastest lap and the race win, but suffered when their pit strategy unravelled for Kovalainen, who had to be called in after his lead was eroded by the safety car. That said, with main rivals Ferrari imploding on race day, they still come away with a comfortable points advantage.
With no time for testing, the team should arrive at Sepang with relatively few differences to their car, though they can be expected to run a slightly different aerodynamic solution: the long straights adding emphasis on aerodynamic efficiency could see some reduction in downforce, particularly if rivals are much faster down the straights.
Besides that, the weekend ahead should be about ensuring a solid strategy for the weather, protecting the engines just enough to finish the race, and keeping a good eye on Ferrari to see how well they recover from their mistakes, as there is no doubt they will perform well.
Rather unusually, Ron Dennis is not attending this race: personal matters have taken him back to England. It will be interesting to see what changes there are when the team reacts to pressure while his hand is off the helm.
22. Lewis Hamilton: Starting the season with a comfortable win in Australia has set up tremendous expectation on the sophomore Briton - though he spent much of last year with a points lead, and largely seemed immune to the pressure. With a six point lead over his nearest real rival for the Championship, a car that is capable of a podium finish every time out and benefiting from looking after his engine in the last race, Hamilton has to be looking for a second win...
23. Heikki Kovalainen: poor fortune behind the safety car and a simple mistake took Kovalainen out of contention for a podium finish in Australia. Besides that, it was a fine outing, with fastest lap and a very tidy passing manoeuvre on Alonso to boot... there is every indication that the Finn is settling in very well at McLaren. Better fortune should see him on the podium this weekend.
Objectives: Win the race.
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