Friday, March 21, 2008

Pre-GP Stats Analysis: Malaysia

he winner of the first race of the season has good chances for the world championship, because 14 times in the last 18 seasons the first winner went on to take the title.

But the second race is also important: since 1990, the world champion has won the first race of his successful world title campaign 17 times out of 18 by the second race of the season. The only exception was 2003, when Michael Schumacher won his first race in San Marino, the fourth GP in calendar.

In Formula One history, the world champion won his first race of the season by the second race 40 times out of 58.

Ferrari and McLaren

If a Ferrari or a McLaren wins in Malaysia, the winning streak recorded by these two teams will reach 20 races since Brazil 2006. Currently the count is 10 wins for Ferrari and nine for McLaren.

This takes us back to 1999-2001, when McLaren and Ferrari were the only winners between Malaysia 1999 and Brazil 2001 - a total of 21 races in a row- 13 for Ferrari and nine for McLaren.

Moments to remember in the Malaysian Grand Prix

Michael Schumacher holds off David Coulthard in the 1999 Malaysian Grand Prix © LAT

1999 - The Puppet Master

Michael Schumacher (Ferrari) was back on track after an absence of six races due to a broken leg that he suffered at Silverstone. The German had no hope of winning the championship, so he was asked to help his team-mate Eddie Irvine, who was trailing Mika Hakkinen (McLaren) by two points in the drivers' standings.

Schumacher responded perfectly - he took the lead at the start, then let Irvine and Coulthard (McLaren) through and placed himself in front of Hakkinen in order to slow him down.

In this way Irvine was able to gain some space for his pit stop without risking the lead. Schumacher then accelerated and left Hakkinen on the spot, so he too was able to make his pit stop and came back on track in front of the frustrated Finn, slowing him down again.

At the end of the day Irvine was able to win despite two stops versus only one made by Schumacher, because in the closing stages the German backed off to let him through - again.

The image of the podium was revealing: Schumacher looked fresh and was barely sweating, while Hakkinen was close to exhaustion.

After the race the Ferraris were disqualified for using illegal barge boards, but reinstated before the last race in Japan after a successful appeal in Paris.

2000 - Last day of school

With the drivers' title already gone to Schumacher (Ferrari), the last race of the year was not as tense as the rest of the season.

Hakkinen (McLaren) had the right strategy and pace to win, but his car moved before the lights went out and he was penalised with a stop/go. Michael Schumacher pipped Coulthard (McLaren) with a long first stint and controlled him after the second stop. Hakkinen finished fourth.

2001 - The right tyres on the right car

The race started on a dry track, but after a few laps a sudden downpour flooded the circuit. The safety car was brought out and when the cars queued up to change tyres, the Ferrari pit had some troubles in serving its drivers. They came out of the pits just before being overtaken by the safety car, and were almost lapped.

But the Bridgestone intermediates on the Ferrari F2001 were blisteringly fast, and not only did Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello recover all of the lost places and move into a one-two, but Schumacher pulled away and by half-distance he was more than one minute ahead of his team-mate, a safe margin to win easily.

2002 - Schumacher hits Montoya

Juan Pablo Montoya (Williams) made a perfect start from the second spot on the grid and was able to establish a clear advantage over pole-sitter Michael Schumacher (Ferrari) when braking for the first corner.

The German refused to give way and hit the back of the Williams, damaging the front wing of the Ferrari. The stewards then took the inexplicable step of penalising Montoya.

This put the Colombian out of the fight for the win and, given the good form of the Williams team, handed the win to his team-mate Ralf Schumacher. Barrichello, with the other Ferrari, was in the position to take second, but his engine blew and the second spot went to an irate Montoya.

2003 - Schumacher hits Trulli, Raikkonen says thank you

Fernando Alonso (Renault) scored his first pole position. At 21 years, 7 months and 22 days he was (and still is) the youngest pole-sitter in the history of Formula One.

The race was influenced by an accident at the second corner: Michael Schumacher (Ferrari), concerned about Coulthard (McLaren) who was attacking him, rammed Jarno Trulli (Renault) and put an end to the hopes of both.

The fight for the win was between Alonso and Raikkonen (McLaren). Alonso's performances faded because he had to put more fuel after the first stop and then developed gearbox problems, so Raikkonen won easily with almost 40 seconds over second-placed Barrichello.

2004 - Hopes shattered

Before the race weekend there was considerable chance of having a good battle as the previous year, in very hot conditions, the Michelin tyres fared well and could help to fight the dominant Bridgestone-shod Ferraris.

The hopes were shattered after a few laps. A few drops of rain created some tension in the first minutes of the race, but then a procession set in, with Michael Schumacher leading Montoya (Williams) for the whole afternoon.

2005 - Fernando flies, Ferrari sinks

Alonso (Renault) took his first win of the season almost unchallenged as Trulli (Toyota) behind him kept his rivals at bay for the first part of the race. The Renault driver was able to gain some ground before his pit stop and keep the advantage to win.

Trulli was a safe second because Giancarlo Fisichella, the other Renault driver, had aerodynamic problems and ended his race by ramming into Mark Webber (Williams), and because Raikkonen (McLaren) suffered a tyre failure right after his first stop and dropped out of contention.

For the first time in years the Ferraris were seriously uncompetitive, with Michael Schumacher only seventh and Barrichello retiring.

2006 - Saturday decides

The outcome of the race was decided in qualifying: Michael Schumacher (Ferrari) was penalised for an engine change and had to start from the seventh row, Fernando Alonso (Renault) had a refuelling problem and was only seventh.

With Massa at the back of the grid for an engine change, there was only one of the four most competitive cars in front: the Renault of Fisichella, who duly led comfortably and won. Second was Alonso, who was able to gain several places with a long first stint.

2007 - Hey Felipe, where are you going?

Massa (Ferrari) was on pole, in front of Alonso (McLaren), Raikkonen (Ferrari) and Hamilton (McLaren), but at the start the Brazilian left too much room at the first corner, Fernando was able to take the lead and Hamilton passed as well to take second at the following turn.

After six laps a frustrated Massa tried an impossible move on Hamilton, outbraked himself and went off the track. Alonso had an easy race in front, while Hamilton had to sustain the pressure of Raikkonen for the entire afternoon, coming out on top.

Kim Raikkonen en route to his first victory in the 2003 Malysian Grand Prix © LAT

Malaysia personal scorecard

• Kimi Raikkonen won his first Formula One race here in 2003. He was third last year but counts four retirements out of seven starts. Raikkonen has never made it to the front row; his best qualifying performance being a third place last year.

• The best result for Felipe Massa in Malaysia is a fifth place, obtained in 2006 and 2007. Massa was the pole-sitter last year; the only good qualifying performance he was able to achieve in five attempts - he was 14th in 2002 due to suspension problems, 11th in 2004, 14th in 2005 and 21st for an engine change in 2006.

• Nick Heidfeld made it to the podium in third place in 2005, but retired four times out of eight starts. Heidfeld was able to qualify inside the top ten only three times, in 2002 (7th), 2003 (6th) and 2007 (5th).

• It is a favourable track for Fernando Alonso, who scored here his first pole and podium in 2003. The Spaniard won twice, in 2005 and 2007, and was on the podium four times out of six starts. Alonso also took pole in 2005.

• Nico Rosberg has never made it to the finish. He retired due to an engine failure in 2006 and a water leak in 2007.

• David Coulthard was on the podium in 2000 and 2001, but retired five times out of nine participations. The last time he saw the chequered flag was in 2005 (6th).

• Mark Webber's only highlight in Malaysia was in 2004, when he recorded his first front-row spot of his career. But his race performances are a real nightmare - he only finished the race last year, in 10th place, after five failed attempts. He retired from mechanical failures three times and twice from race accidents.

• Jarno Trulli made it to the podium in second place in 2005 and was able to be second in grid in 2003 and 2005 out of nine participations.

• Mixed emotions for Jenson Button in Malaysia - e was in sight of his first podium finish in 2002 when a suspension failure left him on three wheels while in fourth place a few laps from the end. He was able to take revenge two years later, when he stepped on the podium for the first time in his career.

• Rubens Barrichello was second twice, in 2001 and 2003, and was running second when he retired due to an engine failure in 2002. But his recent runs in Malaysia were not rewarding - a retirement in 2005, a 10th in 2006 and an 11th (his worst place in Malaysia) last year. Barrichello hasn't made it into the top ten in qualifying since 2004 (third).

• Takuma Sato never made it to the points in five attempts.

• Giancarlo Fisichella's win in 2006 was his only podium appearance. His other best result in Malaysia was the sixth place obtained last year. In nine attempts the Italian was only finished inside the top 10 one other time, in 2000 (ninth).

• Lewis Hamilton recorded the first fastest lap of his career in Malaysia at his second race start.

• Heikki Kovalainen gained his first Formula One points in Malaysia last year with an eigth place.

• Ferrari won for the last time in Malaysia in 2004, then only climbed on the podium again last year with the third place from Kimi Raikkonen. In 2005 the best result for the red cars was a seventh place scored by Michael Schumacher, and in 2006 a fifth by Felipe Massa. Ferrari recorded pole six times out of nine races.

• Honda has never made it inside the top ten. Its best result was a tenth place in 2006 and an 11th last year.

• Williams cars haven't made it into the points in Malaysia since 2005, when Heidfeld was third. The only time that a Williams car made it to the front row of the grid was in 2002, when Montoya started second.

• Renault recorded pole in 2003, 2005 and 2006, but last year the best-qualified French car was Kovalainen in 11th place.

• McLaren's best result in qualifying in Malaysia is a second place, scored only twice, in 2000 and 2007.

Other notes about the Malaysian GP

• The win has came from pole position five times, twice from the second spot of the grid, once from the fourth (Ralf Schumacher, 2002) and once from the seventh spot of the grid (Raikkonen, 2003).

• Ferrari and Renault are the only cars to have recorded pole positions in Sepang.

• The last win and pole by an Italian driver came in Malaysia in 2006 (Fisichella).

No comments: